FINDING #4951 · UNIT ID 1111938811
ImMike/polymarket-arbitrage
A Polymarket and Kalshi Arbitrage bot written in Python, watches 10,000+ markets looking for inefficient markets on and between platforms
SURPRISE SCORE
0.00
Score Breakdown
SCORE = SURPRISE × ENGAGEMENT^0.7 × FRESHNESS × VISIBILITY × CONFIDENCE
SURPRISE = WINDOW STARS / DAYS / (AUDIENCE + FLOOR)
62% OF STARS IN ARCHIVE
[BOT] SUSPECTED STAR BOT — SCORE PENALIZED. SIGNATURES:
S2 · NO EXTERNAL ISSUE/PR AUTHORS DESPITE 100+ STARS
S5 · PREDATES WINDOW, YET HALF+ OF ALL ITS STARS LANDED IN IT
S10 · S10
Growth Telemetry
VELOCITY /D
1.54
ACCEL
-0.01
RETENTION
26.3%
PEAK 2026-06-07 · FORK-RETENTION 0.0% · 139 STARS / WINDOW
Author Audience
AUDIENCE
61
FOLLOWERS
35
OWNER ★
258
Engagement Signals
FORKS
110
ISSUE AUTH
0
PR AUTH
0
UNIQUE STARGAZERS 139 / 139 (DIVERSITY 1.00)
Why This Is A Finding
ImMike/polymarket-arbitrage собрал 139 звёзд за окно, тогда как у автора всего 35 подписчиков — эффективная аудитория ≈ 61. Это даёт surprise-индекс 0.0153 (звёзды относительно охвата автора, а не в абсолюте). Удержание форков 0.0% и 0 внешних контрибьюторов отделяют реальный инструмент от разовой вспышки. Акселерация отрицательная — внимание остывает после пика.
Related Findings
RANKS ABOVE 22% OF 6380 FINDINGS
METRICS IN CONTEXT
MEDIAN ACROSS ALL 6380 FINDINGS · Δ vs MEDIAN · PERCENTILE = SHARE RANKED BELOW
METRICVALUEMEDIANΔ MEDPERCENTILE
SCORE0.000.00-0.00ABOVE 22%
VELOCITY1.543.99-2.45ABOVE 2%
RETENTION26.3%17.1%+9.2 PPABOVE 70%
FORKS11090+21ABOVE 55%
SURPRISE0.020.01+0.00ABOVE 56%