Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis — GitHub trend

FINDING #5798 · UNIT ID 1102015506

Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis

A framework for collecting and analyzing prediction market data, including the largest publicly available dataset of Polymarket and Kalshi market and trade data.

[ PYTHON ][ GITHUB ↗ ]

SURPRISE SCORE

0.00

Score Breakdown

SURPRISE0.0014

ENGAGEMENT0.56

FRESHNESS1.58

SCORE = SURPRISE × ENGAGEMENT^0.7 × FRESHNESS × VISIBILITY × CONFIDENCE

SURPRISE = WINDOW STARS / DAYS / (AUDIENCE + FLOOR)

1% OF STARS IN ARCHIVE

Growth Telemetry

VELOCITY /D

1.90

ACCEL

-0.00

RETENTION

30.4%

PEAK 2026-09-20 · FORK-RETENTION 84.6% · 57 STARS / WINDOW

Author Audience

AUDIENCE

1,317

FOLLOWERS

695

OWNER ★

6,220

Engagement Signals

FORKS

546

ISSUE AUTH

PR AUTH

UNIQUE STARGAZERS 57 / 57 (DIVERSITY 1.00)

Why This Is A Finding

Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis собрал 57 звёзд за окно, тогда как у автора всего 695 подписчиков — эффективная аудитория ≈ 1,317. Это даёт surprise-индекс 0.0014 (звёзды относительно охвата автора, а не в абсолюте). Удержание форков 84.6% и 0 внешних контрибьюторов отделяют реальный инструмент от разовой вспышки. Акселерация отрицательная — внимание остывает после пика.

Related Findings

RANKS ABOVE 40% OF 9676 FINDINGS

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METRICS IN CONTEXT

MEDIAN ACROSS ALL 9676 FINDINGS · Δ vs MEDIAN · PERCENTILE = SHARE RANKED BELOW

METRICVALUEMEDIANΔ MEDPERCENTILE

SCORE0.000.00-0.00ABOVE 40%

VELOCITY1.903.80-1.90ABOVE 16%

RETENTION30.4%20.0%+10.4 PPABOVE 72%

FORKS546142+404ABOVE 79%

SURPRISE0.000.01-0.01ABOVE 19%