FINDING #290 · UNIT ID 1169524736
YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent
Oracle3: open-source trading engine and MCP server for prediction markets. Finds fee-adjusted no-arbitrage violations across related event contracts and trades them live on Kalshi, Polymarket and Solana, or on paper, under pre-trade risk limits. 13 MCP tools, JSON CLI, agent skills, 600+ tests.
SURPRISE SCORE
0.00
Score Breakdown
SCORE = SURPRISE × ENGAGEMENT^0.7 × FRESHNESS × VISIBILITY × CONFIDENCE
SURPRISE = WINDOW STARS / DAYS / (AUDIENCE + FLOOR)
12% OF STARS IN ARCHIVE
Growth Telemetry
VELOCITY /D
16.67
ACCEL
-1.00
RETENTION
83.3%
PEAK 2026-10-09 · FORK-RETENTION 0.0% · 50 STARS / WINDOW
Author Audience
AUDIENCE
85
FOLLOWERS
38
OWNER ★
491
Engagement Signals
FORKS
49
ISSUE AUTH
0
PR AUTH
0
UNIQUE STARGAZERS 50 / 50 (DIVERSITY 1.00)
Why This Is A Finding
YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent собрал 50 звёзд за окно, тогда как у автора всего 38 подписчиков — эффективная аудитория ≈ 85. Это даёт surprise-индекс 0.13 (звёзды относительно охвата автора, а не в абсолюте). Удержание форков 0.0% и 0 внешних контрибьюторов отделяют реальный инструмент от разовой вспышки. Акселерация отрицательная — внимание остывает после пика.
Related Findings
RANKS ABOVE 97% OF 8679 FINDINGS
METRICS IN CONTEXT
MEDIAN ACROSS ALL 8679 FINDINGS · Δ vs MEDIAN · PERCENTILE = SHARE RANKED BELOW
METRICVALUEMEDIANΔ MEDPERCENTILE
SCORE0.060.00+0.06ABOVE 97%
VELOCITY16.675.67+11.00ABOVE 82%
RETENTION83.3%42.4%+40.9 PPABOVE 92%
FORKS49334-285ABOVE 19%
SURPRISE0.130.00+0.13ABOVE 95%