FINDING #276 · UNIT ID 1169524736
YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent
Oracle3: open-source trading engine and MCP server for prediction markets. Finds fee-adjusted no-arbitrage violations across related event contracts and trades them live on Kalshi, Polymarket and Solana, or on paper, under pre-trade risk limits. 13 MCP tools, JSON CLI, agent skills, 600+ tests.
SURPRISE SCORE
0.00
Score Breakdown
SCORE = SURPRISE × ENGAGEMENT^0.7 × FRESHNESS × VISIBILITY × CONFIDENCE
SURPRISE = WINDOW STARS / DAYS / (AUDIENCE + FLOOR)
26% OF STARS IN ARCHIVE
Growth Telemetry
VELOCITY /D
15.43
ACCEL
+0.79
RETENTION
91.7%
PEAK 2026-10-06 · FORK-RETENTION 50.0% · 108 STARS / WINDOW
Author Audience
AUDIENCE
87
FOLLOWERS
38
OWNER ★
491
Engagement Signals
FORKS
49
ISSUE AUTH
0
PR AUTH
0
UNIQUE STARGAZERS 108 / 108 (DIVERSITY 1.00)
Why This Is A Finding
YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent собрал 108 звёзд за окно, тогда как у автора всего 38 подписчиков — эффективная аудитория ≈ 87. Это даёт surprise-индекс 0.12 (звёзды относительно охвата автора, а не в абсолюте). Удержание форков 50.0% и 0 внешних контрибьюторов отделяют реальный инструмент от разовой вспышки. Акселерация положительная — рост ещё не выдохся.
Related Findings
RANKS ABOVE 97% OF 9757 FINDINGS
METRICS IN CONTEXT
MEDIAN ACROSS ALL 9757 FINDINGS · Δ vs MEDIAN · PERCENTILE = SHARE RANKED BELOW
METRICVALUEMEDIANΔ MEDPERCENTILE
SCORE0.050.00+0.05ABOVE 97%
VELOCITY15.433.57+11.86ABOVE 85%
RETENTION91.7%40.0%+51.7 PPABOVE 99%
FORKS49112-63ABOVE 31%
SURPRISE0.120.01+0.11ABOVE 96%